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Alberta Progressive Conservative Party regains lead

Feb 11, 2011

Author: ERG

Alberta Progressive Conservative Party regains lead

Alberta's Progressive Conservative Party now has a twelve point lead over the Wildrose Alliance.

Provincial party support. The Conservative Party is now supported by 38 percent of decided Alberta voters, up from 34 percent in November 2010. Support for the Wildrose Alliance, meanwhile, has declined to 26 percent among decided voters, down 6 points since the fall. Among the other opposition parties, the Liberals are at 22 percent, followed by the NDP at 10 percent. About one in six eligible voters (18%) are undecided or chose not to answer the question.

 

October 2009

March 2010

November 2010

January 2011

PC

34

34

34

38 (+4)

Wildrose Alliance

28

30

32

26 (-6)

Liberal

20

23

19

22 (+3)

NDP

9

10

13

10 (-3)

Undecided/No answer

16

17

17

18


Regional Results. While the Wildrose is a close second to the Conservatives in Calgary, the governing PC's now lead by considerable margins in Edmonton and the rest of the province.

In Edmonton, the Conservative Party is leading at 36%, followed by the Liberal Party at 27%, the Wildrose Alliance at 18 percent and the NDP at 15 percent. In Calgary, meanwhile the Conservatives (34%) are essentially tied with the Wildrose Alliance (31%), while the Liberals have 24 percent support and the NDP 6 percent.

 

Edmonton

Calgary

Rest of Alberta

PC

36 (+4)

34 (-2)

43 (+10)

Wildrose Alliance

18 (-7)

31 (-2)

29 ( -8)

Liberal

27 (+3)

24 (+5)

15 ( -)

NDP

15 (-3)

6 (-3)

9 (-3)


In the towns and cities outside of Edmonton and Calgary, the Conservatives are leading with 43 percent, well ahead of the Wildrose Alliance (29%), Liberals (15%), and NDP (9%).

For further information, please contact:

Tony Coulson: 403-613-5735 or tony.coulson@environics.ca

Methodology

The current survey results are taken from an Environics Research Group survey of 1,011 Albertans aged 18 and older conducted between January 20 and 31, 2011. On a province wide basis, these results are accurate to within +/-3.1 percentage points, in 95 out of 100 samples.

The sample was designed to complete 1,000 interviews within households randomly selected across the province. The sample was drawn in proportion to the populations of 12 urban centers and 3 rural regions within Alberta based on information from Statistics Canada 2006 Census Data.

Sample distribution

 

2006 Census
%

Weighted Sample
N=1,000

Unweighted
Sample
N=1,000

 

Margin of Error

Alberta

100

1,012

1,012

+/- 3.1%

Calgary

33

329

257

+/- 6.2%

Edmonton

32

323

253

+/- 6.2%

Small Cities

15

151

202

+/- 6.9%

Rural South

8

82

100

+/- 9.8%

Rural Central

5

45

100

+/- 9.8%

Rural North

8

83

100

+/- 9.8%


From within each multi-person household contacted, respondents 18 years of age and older were screened for random selection using the “Most Recent Birthday” method. The use of this technique produces results that are as valid and effective as enumerating all persons within a household and selecting one randomly.

Questions:

- If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for?


- [IF UNDECIDED] Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be presently inclined to support?


Click here to download a PDF.

 


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