Latest Environics poll shows Conservatives maintaining a clear lead

Apr 18, 2011

Author: ERG

Latest Environics poll shows Conservatives maintaining a clear lead, with NDP support continuing to rise

Toronto

With two weeks left in the federal election campaign, the federal Conservatives maintain a solid lead over the opposition, but there is an increasingly competitive race for second place between the Liberals and the NDP, according to a new poll released by Environics Research Group.

The telephone poll of 965 eligible voters was conducted from April 12 to 17, 2011 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

The Conservatives, with the support of 39 percent (up one point since our poll released on April 7) of decided voters, now have a 15-point lead over the opposition Liberals, who have the support of 24 percent (down one point) of decided voters. Support for the NDP stands at 22 percent (up two points) and support for the Green Party stands at 6 percent (down two points). One percent of decided voters would vote for other parties. Nine percent would vote for the Bloc Québécois nationally, up one point, which translates into 37 percent in Quebec. One in five Canadians are either undecided (17%) or will not vote at all (3%).

It is unclear whether these national popular vote results would result in a Conservative majority
government. In Ontario, support for the Conservatives stands at 39 percent (down three points),
while both the Liberals (33%, up four points) and the NDP (23%, up two points) have gained ground. Support for the Green party has declined three points to six percent.

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois still leads with 37 percent (up three points). NDP support continues
to grow and now stands at 26 percent (up five points). Both the Conservatives (18%, up one point)
and the Liberals (14%, down four points) lag further behind.  
 
 
For further information, please contact:
 
Derek Leebosh, Vice-President – Environics Research Group  
(416) 969-2817 derek.leebosh@environics.ca

Methodology

Results for this research are based on 965 telephone interviews with a random sample of
Canadians aged 18 years and older who are eligible to vote. A sample of this size
produces results considered accurate to within +/- 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of
20. The margins of error are larger for the regional sub-samples.
 
Interviews were conducted between April 12 and 17, 2011.  
 
Questions (English):
 
If a Canadian federal election were to be held today, which party’s candidate would you
vote for?  
 
[If “Undecided” ask] Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a
party you might be inclined to support?